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Tata Steel Q4 preview: PAT may fall up to 46% YoY on revenue decline; European operations in focus
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Tata Steel Q4 preview: PAT may fall up to 46% YoY on revenue decline; European operations in focus
Agencies Tata Steel will announce its Q4FY25 earnings on Monday, May 12, 2025, and it is expected to report a net profit fall of 18%-46% on a year-on-year basis, according to estimates given by four brokerages। The revenue is also expected to take a hit in the January-March quarter of FY25, the brokerages unanimously believe। The bottom line range is seen between Rs 459 crore and Rs 1,399 crore। It could fall between 3। 2% and 9%, dangling in the range of Rs 53,212 crore and Rs 56,806 crore। The divergence in their estimates stems from differences in methodology—for instance, Nuvama has considered adjusted PAT, while others have based their projections on either standalone or consolidated financials। Overall, while domestic operations may provide some cushion, international headwinds and cost pressures are likely to weigh on Tata Steel’s consolidated Q4 performance। Investors will be closely watching management commentary on European operations and future margin outlook। Here’s what brokerages recommended: Nuvama Nuvama expects Tata Steel’s adjusted PAT at Rs 990 crore, reflecting a decline of 18% YoY while going up by 119% QoQ। The revenue could come-in at Rs 53,440 crore, which marks a 9% decline YoY and 0। 4% fall in QoQ। Live Events The Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) may stand at Rs 6,520 crore, registering a 6। 5% YoY fall and a sharper 13। 5% decline QoQ। “The standalone EBITDA/t is likely to increase by Rs 845 QoQ to Rs 12,396 owing to a decline in coking coal cost by $10/t QoQ and operating leverage benefit from higher volumes (up 6% QoQ to 5। 62mt)। The blended realisation is likely to remain flat QoQ,” a Nuvama preview note said। In its view, Tata Steel Europe’s losses are likely to remain nearly similar on the QoQ basis (EBITDA of –$39/t compared with –$41/t in Q3FY25) owing to lower RM cost and fixed cost in the UK, partially offset by a decrease in steel prices। Meanwhile, the Netherlands operations are likely to report a negligible EBITDA profit while UK losses are likely to remain almost the same QoQ। Yes Securities Yes Securities has pegged PAT at Rs 459 crore, which is a likely decline of 17% on a YoY basis while an uptick of 55% on a sequential basis। Net sales for the quarter under review may stand at Rs 53,212 crore, going down by 9% YoY while modestly decreasing by 0। 8% QoQ। EBITDA for the quarter may come in at Rs 6,383 crore, which could go down 3। 3% YoY while going up 8। 1% QoQ। “We expect Tata Steel to see a flattish change in its top-line owing to stable HRC prices in India and a falling trend at the European operations,” Yes said, adding that falling coking coal prices and improving European operations are expected to play the key roles on the EBITDA front। “We expect Tata Steel to report consolidated deliveries of 8। 02 mn tonnes and see the consolidated EBITDA to grow by c। Rs 300/tonne on a QoQ basis to reach Rs। 7,957/tonne,” this brokerage said। ICICI Securities ICICI Securities pegs Tata Steel’s consolidated PAT at Rs 1,399 crore which could mark a sharp decline of 41% YoY basis while rising by 463% QoQ। The revenue for the quarter under review may stand at Rs 56,806 crore, likely recording a 3। 2% decline YoY while rising by 6% QoQ। suggesting a sequential recovery in demand or better realization across key markets। EBITDA is seen at Rs 6,509 crore, which may fall 1। 4% YoY while going up 10% QoQ। “Crude steel production impacted by relining of 'G' Blast furnace at Jamshedpur, though capacity ramp up at KPO-II continues। Domestic EBITDA/te (adj। ) for Q3FY25 one-offs likely to expand slightly। TSN is likely to be profitable at EBITDA level though TSUK is likely to report loss,” this brokerage said। Motilal Oswal MOFSL expects PAT figures at Rs 649 crore in Q4FY25, likely falling 46% over Q4FY24 and 12% Q3FY25। The revenue for the quarter may stand at Rs 56,038 crore, likely going down 4। 5% YoY, while seeing an improvement of 4। 5% on a sequential basis। EBITDA may come in at Rs 6,437 crore, going down 2। 5% YoY while declining by 10% sequentially। “Better ASP to support margins and strong volumes to drive performance in India business। Weak global prices will keep Europe earnings muted। Commentary on Europe operations is critical। Management guidance on ASP,” MOFSL said in a preview note। (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own। These do not represent the views of Economic Times) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel ) Read More News on tata steel tata steel q4 results tata steel shares tata steel share price tata steel stock market news (What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news , stock tips , Budget 2025 , Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice , on ETMarkets । Also, ETMarkets। com is now on Telegram। For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds । ) 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