Bounce signals grow louder as Nifty shows resilience; defence, bank stocks in focus: Anand James

Bharti Infotech May 11, 2025 0

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Bounce signals grow louder as Nifty shows resilience; defence, bank stocks in focus: Anand James

ETMarkets। Anand James of Geojit points out that the worst may already be priced in, setting the stage for a tactical bounce—especially in SMIDs and defence na... Brought to you by HeadlinesNow.com

ETMarkets। Anand James of Geojit points out that the worst may already be priced in, setting the stage for a tactical bounce—especially in SMIDs and defence names। com Despite a red close for the Nifty , the market flashed signs of resilience with strong intraday recoveries across indices। Banks, though bruised, may soon be ready for a counterattack। Edited excerpts from a chat: ‎Pakistan conflict has clearly taken a toll on the market rally with Nifty ending the week 1। 4% down। Historical data indicates that conflicts with Pakistan lead to a market fall but it eventually bounces back। This time, the market has been reluctant to fall sharply as strikes have been measured। How do you read the market mood now and what are the levels to watch out for? Even as Nifty closed in the red on Friday, with weekend uncertainty looming, 62% of its constituents bounced at least 1% from their respective lows, suggesting that most of the damage was limited to the downside gapped opening। This is contrary to usual bear moves, where a dead cat bounce is usually followed by a powerful plunge। That another wave of downside did not unfold on Friday is an indication towards resilience, or that a good deal of cross border tension has been priced in already। SMIDs saw stronger bounce back, with 61% of mid-caps bouncing at least 2% from their respective lows। Among Nifty 500 stocks, more than 65% stocks pushed above the day’s VWAP on Friday, echoing the above sentiments। That said, this was not entirely unexpected, given the support offered by the 200-day SMA near 24050, as well as fibo support near 23950-870। This sets up for a bounce next week with the least objective of 24260। However, should 24150 fail to hold after such an upswing, expect resumption of downtrend aiming 23670-460। Given the sharper fall in Nifty Bank in the week, do you see buy the dip opportunity in bank stocks? Will they be the first one to bounce back once the threat recedes? Friday’s grave stone doji confirms the profit booking phase, while the weekly MACD histogram shows signs of exhaustion, suggesting the potential for further downside toward the 52,940–52,900 zone before a possible reversal। Incidentally, 38। 2% Fibonacci retracement level of 52,940 (calculated from last month’s high and low) also coincides with a declining trendline support। From a derivatives perspective, 42% stocks have seen Short addition this week and 33% saw Long unwinding। Key constituents such as HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI, Axis Bank, and Kotak Bank have also exhibited signs of weekly momentum exhaustion, indicating some initial weakness in the coming week। However, as long as the index remains above 52,900, traders can look to play the bounce। As expected, defence stocks were the most wanted ones on Dalal Street amid the conflict। What are the charts indicating at? Do you think the rally in the likes of IdeaForge is sustainable next week as well? Defence stocks showed renewed strength towards the end of the week, following a period of profit booking over the past few sessions। On the weekly chart, several heavyweight names have either broken above or are on the verge of crossing their respective weekly Super trend levels, signaling potential bullish momentum in the coming week। The average RSI for major defence stocks hovers around 55, indicating underlying strength। From a derivatives perspective, 67% of these stocks witnessed long positions and 33% saw short covering today। On a weekly basis, 33% of the stocks have seen fresh longs and 33% have seen short covering, further reinforcing a positive outlook for the sector। Stocks like BEL, GRSE, Data Patterns, HAL, Bharat Forge, and IdeaForge are expected to lead the rally going into next week। Give us your top ideas for the week। EPL (CMP: 208) Live Events View: Buy Target: 220 Stoploss: 197 The stock has broken out of a consolidation pattern that had been forming over the past few weeks, supported by strong volumes on Friday। It has successfully closed above the daily Supertrend level, and the weekly MACD is on the verge of crossing above the signal line, indicating potential bullish momentum in the coming week। We expect stock to move towards the 220 level in the next week। All long positions should be protected with a stop-loss placed below 197। SULA (CMP: 276) View: Buy Target: 287 Stoploss: 264 The stock has been in a profit-booking phase since the last week of April but has now formed a Bullish Marubozu candle on the daily chart, signaling potential reversal। Additionally, the daily SMIO histogram shows signs of exhaustion at lower levels, further supporting the case for a rebound। The stock has also crossed above its 50-day simple moving average (50 DSMA), which adds to the bullish outlook for the coming days। We expect the stock to move towards the 287 level in the coming weeks। All long positions should be protected with a stop-loss placed below 264। (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel ) Read More News on nifty outlook nifty new nifty markets news stock market news defence stocks banks stocks (What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news , stock tips , Budget 2025 , Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice , on ETMarkets । Also, ETMarkets। com is now on Telegram। For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds । ) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online। and Sensex Today । Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price , Axis Bank Share Price , HDFC Bank Share Price , Infosys Share Price , Wipro Share Price , NTPC Share Price । more less (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel ) Read More News on nifty outlook nifty new nifty markets news stock market news defence stocks banks stocks (What's moving Sensex and Nifty Track latest market news , stock tips , Budget 2025 , Share Market on Budget 2025 and expert advice , on ETMarkets । Also, ETMarkets। com is now on Telegram। For fastest news alerts on financial markets, investment strategies and stocks alerts, subscribe to our Telegram feeds । ) Subscribe to ET Prime and read the Economic Times ePaper Online। and Sensex Today । Top Trending Stocks: SBI Share Price , Axis Bank Share Price , HDFC Bank Share Price , Infosys Share Price , Wipro Share Price , NTPC Share Price । more less Prime Exclusives Investment Ideas Stock Report Plus ePaper Wealth Edition Airlines profit to IATA meet, how India-Pak conflict will impact Indian aviation Explainer: How the India-UK FTA will make British scotch, imported cars cheaper here Good, bad, or ugly? 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